Ready Or Not - The First Breeders Cup on a Synthetic Track

HISTORY IN THE MAKING

The Breeders Cup will make history in 2008 when it is hosted for the first time on a synthetic surface. The honor goes to Santa Anita Park and its new Pro-Ride track, which replaces a controversial Cushion Track. Synthetic, or engineered, tracks are not popular among all horsemen, and in fact have as many detractors as proponents. Nick Zito is among the most vocal and respected detractors. Zito argues that the rich tradition of dirt racing is what powers the engine of the racing industry. Supporters of synthetic racing surfaces cite statistics indicating a reduction in catastrophic injuries. This debate is, I am afraid, in its infancy, but it won't slow down the momentum leading up to Breeders Cup 2008.

Breeders Cup 2008 is a two-day extravaganza beginning Friday, October 24 with five Breeders Cup races featuring the Distaff Division. And nine more Breeders Cup races, including the Breeders Cup Turf and the Breeders Cup Classic, are scheduled for Saturday, October 25. There are a total of six races on turf and eight on Pro-Ride (synthetic) during the Breeders Cup weekend at Santa Anita.

WHAT ARE RACE TRACKS MADE OF?

It used to be the case that a racing surface was either going to be dirt or turf, with rare exceptions. Most dirt tracks are composed of about 80% sand, with the remaining 20% a combination of clay and silt. The new trend is artificial surfaces, which are springing up everywhere, such as the new Polytrack surfaces. European-designed Polytrack is a synthetic mixture of wax-coated polypropylene fibers, recycled rubber, and fine sand. Polytrack is what is known as an engineered racing surface. The idea is that the Polytrack is supposed to form a supportive "cushion" for the horses to run on. This cushion, in turn, provides added safety because of a more even composition across the track. There is another advantage: easy and efficient drainage, allowing for races in practically any weather condition. Most dirt tracks are slightly tilted inward to facilitate drainage, so when it rains some spots are thicker and others are thinner, and this makes the surface somewhat uneven. On a Polytrack surface, water seeps straight through to a drainage system below, eliminating any uneven spots that might be found on dirt.

Polytrack was a hot topic in horse racing circles even before 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro broke down in the Preakness Stakes, and eventually had to be euthanized on January 29, 2007 despite a heroic effort by Dr. Dean Richardson (of the New Bolton Center in Pennsylvania) to keep Barbaro alive. Several tracks in England have used Polytrack for years, and it's really starting to catch on in the United States. Polytrack was first installed in the U.S. at Turfway Park in Florence, Ky in 2005. Before Turfway, the last major North American racetrack to install an all-weather surface was Remington Park in Oklahoma City. It opened in 1988 with Equitrack, a polymer-based surface in which sand is covered with a wax coating. But by 1991, the track switched to dirt because the Equitrack surface was starting to disintegrate (melt) and create unforeseen problems. When horses raced over the damaged surface, they kicked up "particles of dust" from the track, and the horses would breathe in this dust, causing respiratory illnesses.

These problems are not supposed to happen with Polytrack. Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky installed Polytrack in 2006 and initial reports have been promising. The Thoroughbred Times released some interesting figures from the 2006 Keeneland Fall meeting, numbers that may, in the long run, provide racing with its greatest benefit. The average margin of victory at the meet was 1.6 lengths, much tighter than the 2.9 and 3.9 average margins at the previous two fall sessions run over conventional dirt tracks. In addition, the average distance between the first place and the last place finisher was down by about 13 lengths in 2006 when compared with 2005. In other words, the synthetic surfaces (Polytrack at least) seem to be generating more competitive and dramatic contests, not unlike races on the turf (grass).

CALIFORNIA IS MOVING FAST

The California Horse Racing Board directed that all major tracks in the state have a form of engineered surface in place by the end of 2007. Ground was broken at Del Mar in early 2007 for installation of a Polytrack surface to be ready for the summer meet beginning July 18, 2007. Hollywood Park was the first track in California to hold a racing meet on an engineered track. The Inglewood race course selected Cushion Track for its main track in 2006. Cushion Track and Polytrack are very similar, with subtle differences in composition. Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, California) has chosen Cushion Track as well, and is targeting early September 2007 to complete installation (in time for the Oak Tree meet). Yet another artificial surface is in play at an American racetrack. Tapeta Footings, created by highly successful trainer Michael Dickinson, will make its racing debut in Northern California in 2007 at Golden Gate Fields. Installation is scheduled to begin in the summer barring delays. Tapeta has had great success as a training track at Dickinson's Maryland farm.

In March of 2007, Bay Meadows became the first victim of the fallout of the CHRB mandate, after being denied (by the California Racing Board) a two-year extension to install a synthetic racing surface. However, in May the CHRB granted Bay Meadows a temporary exemption for 2008 as long as Bay Meadows guaranteed its racing dates. Should concerned parties eventually fail to reach a compromise, this would end a long run (currently 73 years) for Bay Meadows (opened 1934). Bay Meadows President Jack Liebau, angered by the original ruling in March, lamented it would mark a date of infamy for racing in California.

On May 4, 2007, Arlington Park opened its summer meet with a brand new Polytrack surface. The dirt surface that it replaced had a significantly higher percentage of silt and clay (40%) than most dirt courses. The unusual composition proved a disadvantage for front runners and a help to closers, and Polytrack should continue or even intensify that trend.

Reactions from horsemen have been mixed regarding the Polytrack revolution. Bob Holthus, who trained Lawyer Ron for the Kentucky Derby, said (in 2006) it's a shame Keeneland was installing the surface. That track hosts the Blue Grass Stakes, one of the more prestigious Derby prep races, and Holthus says it's better for horses to run on dirt in their final race before heading to the dirt track at Churchill Downs. As for Barbaro's injury, Holthus stated he didn't think a change of surface would have prevented it. "I don't think it had anything to do with it," Holthus said. "Horses make bad steps and they can do it on any kind of surface."

Jockey Victor Espinoza, a fixture in Southern California racing, was reported as making a salient point: "...horses that come off the pace are more comfortable..."

Generally horses that perform well on turf, but also show some dirt aptitude, perform well on Polytrack. Pedigree can suggest aptitude, but ultimately the proof is in the pudding. Definite patterns in the influence of pedigree on Polytrack performance are emerging, though. Carson City, Deputy Minister, Dynaformer, Storm Cat, With Approval, Forty Niner, Sadler's Wells, and Gone West are all stallions whose progeny are performing exceptionally well on the new artificial surfaces.

IT'S ALL IN THE BLOOD

A brave new world in racing is dawning with the advent of Polytrack and the other synthetic racing surfaces. In recent decades, the breeding industry has invested untold millions in an attempt to "breed for speed." About 75% of all modern thoroughbreds can be traced back to a single horse: Northern Dancer (deceased 1990). Everything that makes a racehorse successful in America is changing, almost overnight. The progeny of stallions like Mr. Prospector (deceased 1999) and Northern Dancer, and their progeny, may lose some of their influence unless their descendants perform well on the new engineered surfaces. At first glance, some of the more successful "Polytrack sires" are Storm Cat (a grandson of Northern Dancer), Deputy Minister (also a grandson of Northern Dancer), Dynaformer (another grandson of Northern Dancer), With Approval (a great-grandson of Northern Dancer), Forty Niner (a son of Mr. Prospector), Carson City (a son of Mr. Prospector and great-great-grandson of Northern Dancer), Gone West (a son of Mr. Prospector), and Sadler's Wells (a son of Northern Dancer). It is apparent that Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector are well represented in this list. More and more dirt tracks are being replaced with engineered (synthetic) surfaces, and the breeding industry will be keeping a close eye on all the developments.

It is my opinion that Northern Dancer progeny will probably fare better on Polytrack than Mr. Prospector's progeny. We have seen that Storm Cat, by all accounts a great source of Polytrack aptitude, is a grandson of Northern Dancer. Successful Polytrack stallions Deputy Minister and Sadler's Wells are first or second-generation descendants of Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer sired some of the world's greatest turf champions, including Nijinsky II, Sadler's Wells, and The Minstrel. And the correlation between turf success and Polytrack success would seem to indicate that the descendants of these turf champions will do well on the engineered surfaces. Northern Dancer, however, does not provide a source of great endurance, so his progeny are probably better suited to races on Polytrack of a mile and one-eighth or less.

The successful Polytrack stallions Forty Niner, Carson City, and Gone West are all sons of Mr. Prospector. But Mr. Prospector is revered as the great Triple Crown sire of our time. Mr. Prospector has influenced America's Triple Crown perhaps more than any other sire. Curlin, recent winner of the Preakness (May 19, 2007), is a grandson of Mr. Prospector. The Kentucky Derby (May 5, 2007) winner Street Sense is a great-grandson of Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector's grandson Unbridled won the 1996 Kentucky Derby. His great-grandsons Real Quiet (1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness) and Grindstone (1996 Kentucky Derby) won Triple Crown events. His son Conquistador Cielo won the 1982 Belmont. Other descendants winning Triple Crown events are Birdstone (2004 Belmont), Tank's Prospect (1985 Preakness), Hansel (1991 Preakness and Belmont), Timber Country (1995 Preakness), Victory Gallop (1998 Belmont), Thunder Gulch (1995 Derby and Belmont), Point Given (2001 Preakness and Belmont), Smarty Jones (2004 Derby and Preakness), Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness and Belmont), Editor's Note (1996 Belmont), Funny Cide (2003 Derby and Preakness), War Emblem (2002 Derby and Preakness), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000 Derby). There is probably no better dirt sire in the history of thoroughbred racing. But success as a stallion for racing on dirt will not necessarily translate into success for racing on Polytrack. Early indications are the breeding industry may be leaning toward the great turf stallions for the future.

And what of the Triple Crown of the future? Will the Kentucky Derby ever be run on Polytrack? I'll believe it when I see it (I hope to be dead by then). But whatever the surface is in a race, the more races a horse has run on that surface the easier it is to predict how a horse will run on that surface the next time out. For the time being, there is not really an established handicapping methodology for handicapping the Polytrack tracks. This tends to create an environment that encourages a lot of surprises, and potentially long payoffs.

HOW DO YOU HANDICAP A PEDIGREE?

In late 2005 I sent an email to Dr. Steve Roman, father of the Dosage Index, speculating on the advent of Polytrack surfaces:

"...the knowledge of pedigree influences on the racing aptitude of a horse is going to be the most valuable handicapping tool since the advent of the Beyer speed figure, at least in California, and perhaps right now in Florence, Ky...and the reason it will be so is because the vast majority of bettors has no idea what to make of a pedigree."

Steve Roman has been following the developments of engineered surfaces for some time, now. In my opinion, the contributions Steve Roman (father of the Dosage Index), Steven Crist (savior of the Daily Racing Form), and Andy Beyer (creator of the Beyer speed figure) have made to the racing industry worldwide are unmatched.

I decided to power down my personal computer for a day and go to the closest Off-Track-Betting parlor (OTB) to check out an entire card run on Polytrack. I chose a typical day at the races at Keeneland on October 18, 2006, and observed the nine-race card from start to finish. The weather was slightly cloudy and the main (Polytrack) track was labeled fast. The results were illuminating. The average payout on a $2 win bet for the entire card was a healthy $22.87 (that's 10-to-1 odds) on average. The highest payout (Wellofaprize in the 7th) was an off-the-scale $107.20 (that's 52-to-1 odds). Wow! And it's no coincidence that the longest price on the board (Wellofaprize) is a grandson of Storm Cat. The pedigrees from the winners on the nine-race card were sprinkled with the names of familiar stallions: Storm Cat, Kris S, and Gone West, all proven turf (and now Polytrack) stallions. Storm Cat, Kris S, and Gone West are also proven dirt stallions, and therein lays the secret to Polytrack aptitude. A stallion whose progeny do well on both grass and dirt seem to thrive on Polytrack as well. Whereas stallions whose progeny are pinholed to be dirt sprint specialists are probably not going to fare well on the engineered surfaces.

Let's get back to my day at the races at Keeneland. The lowest price of the day was a respectable $4.60 (that's 6-to-5 odds). If we throw out the high and low prices, we get a revised average of $13.43 (that's nearly 6-to-1 odds). Tossing out the high and low prices brought the average down, but the result is still very generous. I guess Polytrack is going to be the wild, wild west of horse race handicapping.

MORE ON PEDIGREE (USING WITH A CITY AS AN EXAMPLE)

A horseplayer must be prepared to use all the tools available, including pedigree. Here is an example of how to use pedigree to tease out a horse's performance on Polytrack as opposed to dirt. It is a piece I wrote on With A City (unfortunately euthanized April 24, 2006) and his chances for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.

With A City: I dusted off my copy of the July 23, 2005 Daily Racing Form, and flipped the pages until I found race 10 for Calder, and stared at the page. It was a six panel sprint on the dirt to be run under starter allowance conditions. A nondescript field of seven 2-year-olds stared back at me. The eventual winner, Beit's Bridge, had two prior races, a win in a maiden claiming sprint at Calder and a 5th place finish under starter allowance conditions, also at Calder. The eventual second place finisher, Suave Jazz, had won his maiden claiming debut at Calder. Suave Jazz has gone on to win a little over $16,000 in 2006. The fifth place finisher in the July 23 starter allowance was a 2-year-old by the name of With a City, losing by nearly 10 lengths as the betting favorite. That is how things were going for With a City early in his career. It's not all bad. He won his debut easily, a maiden claiming sprint at Calder. He finished 3rd and 4th, respectively, in two restricted stakes for Florida-breds at Calder, losing to In Summation in both races by a combined 19 1/2 lengths. With a City managed to win twice on the turf at Calder, and herein lies the clue to his dramatic victory in the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park, March 25. There appears to be a mild correlation between success on the turf and success on the new "all weather track" at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. Why is this? Perhaps it is the "spongy" composition of the surface that provides a buffer similar to the natural buffer that grass provides. Also, we know that the pedigree of With a City is influenced by a great source of turf aptitude, his maternal grandsire With Approval. And finally, With a City tried to give us a hint in the Battaglia at Turfway Park, finishing 8th but only four lengths back of the winner (Laity). What does all this mean for With a City's chances in the Kentucky Derby? Not much. The last time I looked, the Derby was run on dirt, and not on grass, and not on an "all weather track." The "poly-tracks" are coming, though, in California, and this is going to turn the handicapping & breeding industries topsy-turvy. None of the old rules will apply, in California anyway.

THE LAST WORD

We have been concentrating on the Polytrack surface because of its increasing prevalence in American racing. They do still run horse races on grass and on dirt in the U.S., though. Whatever the surface, the same principles apply. If today's race is on the turf, then the more lifetime races a horse has on the turf, the more predictable his performance in his next race on turf will be. And if today's race is on the dirt, then the more lifetime races a horse has on the dirt, the more predictable his performance in his next race on dirt will be. The same holds for Polytrack, but there will more surprises on Polytrack at least for the near future. The reason is simple: not as many races have been run on Polytrack. And that's a recipe for surprises.

James Lambert is the Publisher, Sr. Editor, And Founder Of [http://www.Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com]

James is an Author And Internet Handicapping Professional and Holder Of Master Of Science Degree In Mathematics. James Lambert specializes in Mathematical Pedigree Study And Handicapping Methods.

In the spring of 2007, Jim Lambert followed his first book with the widely encompassing and entertaining "Horsing Around: A Guide For The Everyday Horseplayer." ([http://www.horse-race-handicapping.com/ebook07.htm]) A combination of racing news on the hot button topics, horse race handicapping philosophy and case examples, an important tutorial of the different categories of race conditions, and even a fictional story, this new book is fast becoming an industry standard. We don't simply offer picks, we offer scientifically proven methodology. New features will be added along the way to help the most serious handicappers.

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